Modellgestützte Analyse kosteneffizienter CO$_{2}$-Reduktionsstrategien

Lopion, Peter Marco; Stolten, Detlef (Thesis advisor); Pitz-Paal, Robert (Thesis advisor)

Jülich : Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Zentralbibliothek, Verlag (2020)
Book, Dissertation / PhD Thesis

In: Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich. Reihe Energie & Umwelt 506
Page(s)/Article-Nr.: 1 Online-Ressource (XIV, 269 Seiten) : Illustrationen, Diagramme


The climate goals of the federal government of Germany provide for a reduction of green-house gas emissions by 80-95% by the year 2050, compared to 1990. However, it is part of the current public discussion how these targets could be achieved. The potential measures to implement this project are varied and complex. In addition to a massive expansion of renewable energies, alternative drive technologies in the transport sector and energy efficiency measures in the industrial and building sector represent potential measures. However, the use of these technologies represents a disruptive change in the current energy system, whose repercussions on other areas of the system and the associated costs are difficult to estimate. For this reason, the aim of this work is to develop an energy system model that is capable of determining such technical correlations and resulting costs. In this way, it provides a basis for decision-making in the planning of cost-effective CO2 reduction strategies. The developed model is an optimization model for minimizing the total costs of the energy system comprising the CO2 emissions of all sectors. Based on newly developed methodical approaches, it is able to reduce the calculation time through time series aggregation, to increase the recorded level of detail and to consider cost uncertainties. Thus, this represents an approach on generating a consistent, cross-sectoral and technology-open energy scenario for Germany. The results show a complex transformation of the energy system in all sectors. Overall, it reveals that CO2 reduction in the industrial sector is associated with the highest specific abatement costs. The industrial sector is correspondingly responsible for 43-72% of the remaining CO2 emissions in 2050. These emissions remain, despite far-reaching energy efficiency measures in all sectors and a significant reduction in final energy consumption by up to 33-36%. This will lead to an increase of annual costs by 49 bn €/a (for 80% CO2 reduction) to 128 bn €/a (for 95% CO2 reduction). The cumulative total costs of the planned energy system transformation are 655-1,850 bn € until 2050.In the energy sector, the importance of expanding renewable energies is evident. In order to meet the climate goals, it is necessary to expand the installed capacity up to 296 GW in the 80% reduction scenario and up to 471 GW in the 95% reduction scenario. At the same time, an increase in net electricity consumption of up to 46-102% due to sector coupling is expected, compared to today. This is mainly due to PtX measures (Power-to-Heat, Power-to-H2 and E-Mobility) with a future net electricity consumption of up to 307-538 TWh/a. In order to guarantee security of supply with a 95% reduction in emissions, international imports of renewable energy carriers of up to 364 TWh/a must also be planned.